The Aspi report co-author Dr Marcus Hellyer said there was some confusion about the cost of the deal signed with France’s Naval Group. The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has said the planned nuclear-powered submarines, part of the Aukus deal with the United States and the United Kingdom, would likely cost more than the scrapped plan for conventional submarines, which would have cost $90bn. Under the high-range scenario, the constant cost would be $79bn and with inflation it could cost up to $171bn if the schedule stretches out, further compounding the effect of inflation. Including inflation (the “out-turned” cost), it would be $116bn. Under the low range, for a smaller submarine with a more efficient build, the “constant” cost (not including inflation) would be about $70bn. The thinktank’s report contained a series of estimates ranging from low to high and conceded that estimating the final cost of the project is necessarily an “extremely assumption-rich activity”.
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